Friday, October 23, 2009

Bicol stockpiles rice for typhoon months

By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY -- Bicol will have an adequate supply of rice enough for the next three months even if a strong typhoon or Mayon Volcano erupts and sends hundreds of thousands of evacuees to their temporary shelters, particularly in Albay.

A top official of the regional office of the National Food Authority here assured Albay Gov. Joey Salceda and the other provincial governors in Bicol that there is enough supply of rice from October to December this year.

Edgar Ventulan, NFA Bicol regional director, said Friday the agency maintains a rice stock of at least 1.7 million bags of rice ready for disposal in the next three months.

Ventulan said the NFA has a buffer stock, including the 1.15 million bags of imported rice and some 683,000 bags, which were acquired through the agency's rice procurement program.

Among the provinces of the region, Albay has a stock position of 650,382 bags that can last up to 123 days; Camarines Sur with 227,351 good for 44 days; Sorsogon, 99,931 for 67 days; Camarines Norte, 92,722 for 69 days; Masbate, 50,174 for 36 days; and Catanduanes, 30,412 good for 22 days.

He added that some 1.05 bags of palay were also purchased by the NFA from the local farmers under the palay procurement program.

The agency, according to Ventulan, has purchased some 750,673 from Camarines Sur; 127,131 from Albay; 84,979 from Camarines Norte;, 44,638 from Masbate; 40,638 from Sorsogon; and 3,971 from Catanduanes.

Edwin S. Ataiza from the regional supervising grains operations office, said Friday that the daily rice consumption in Bicol is pegged at 42,980 bags while the daily average sale of the agency is around 16,000 bags.

“The 42,980 bags, based on the daily regional consumption, is enough to feed the whole region even if in times of calamities, which makes the stock to last shorter than the time it would take without calamities,” said Ataiza.

He explained that when there is no calamity the same stock (1.7 million) might even stretch to a five-month period because of the participation of private traders.

“When there is no calamity, other people buy their rice from private traders but when there is a calamity, we dispose rice at faster rates because of a memorandum of agreement between the NFA and the local government units, which (tends to) boost the flow of rice from the NFA to the people, particularly those who are affected,” Ataiza said.

Rice importation for this year which is allocated for Bicol is some 2.6 million bags.

The NFA is expecting to import more next year since palay production, according to the Department of Agriculture-Bicol regional office, is expected to go down until the end of this year following several typhoons that wrought havoc to rice plantations in the region.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Albay Gov to pursue Doppler radar
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY – Albay governor Joey Salceda who is a zero-casualty advocate is pursuing the Doppler radar installation to fully enable the weather forecasting agencies against devastating rains that occur even in the absence of a typhoon.

“The weather system is so deceiving nowadays and low pressure areas don’t necessarily have its name, fortunately the disaster preparation systems in our province are in place,” Salceda said referring to the community rain gauges coupled with the alertness of barangay disaster councils and the municipal disaster councils.

Salceda said the DCCs and BCCs were quick in responding to the emergency situation Wednesday and the province had attained a zero casualty report.

“We suspended classes in elementary and high school and the Bicol University College of Agriculture and Fisheries (BUCAF) has been cleared for classrooms used as evacuation center for those living at the low lying areas in Guinobatan, Albay,” Salceda said.

There were some 909 persons reported to have been pre-emptively evacuated to BUCAF from Barangay Maguiron.

“We ordered six army trucks to Manito Jamboree site to fetch the stranded school pupils there. The lesson today is that even a Low Pressure Area (LPA) can bring so much rainfall. I suggest that rainfall content be clearly included in PAGASA forecasts and bulletins,” Salceda explained.

“We are again reminded of the need to put up the Doppler radar which costs some P600 million from the Japan Internation Cooperation Agency (JICA) being the source of the grant,” Salceda said.

Salceda said that with the Doppler radar in place somewhere in Catanduanes province, forecasted would have longer (at least 6 hours) lead time to determine the rain content of tropical cyclones and give ample time for disaster authorities to decide and implement the appropriate preventive measures.

The governor said that although rain gauges are good instruments to determine the rainfall rate, it however, do not tell weathermen the amount of rain before it falls.

Salceda said Thursday morning the classes have been resumed in all levels across the province of Albay and that the routes going to Tabaco City from Legazpi as well as those going to Manila were restored after clearing operations of lahar and boulders were immediately conducted in Barangay Padang, Legazpi City and in Camalig town.

The Doppler Radar System will provide the region with early warning both for disaster mitigation and climate change adaptation, said Albay Governor Joey Salceda.

The JICA set aside the total amount of P594,353,777 during a meeting of the Regional Development Council here last May 6, according to Science and Technology Secretary Estrella Alabastro.

Aside from the radar, the fund will be used for other projects under the Comprehensive Partnership in Science and Technology on Climate Change and Countryside Development project, she said.

The Bicol region is battered frequently by typhoons. The Pagasa has warned that at least five more tropical cyclones would enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). (RMN)



Mayon's toxic gas soars back with 1,272 tons a day rate
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY -- Mayon volcano continues to manifest signs of abnormality with very high level of sulfur dioxide emission (SO2) on Wednesday, high and low frequency volcanic quakes, that prompted disaster authorities to strictly enforce the “no entry” rule in designated danger zone areas surrounding the volcano.

Police and military personnel manning the 12 checkpoints along the danger zone at the volcano’s down slope are closely on guard for any human activity inside the designated “no man's land" areas covering the towns of Camalig, Daraga, Sto. Domingo, the cities of Ligao, Tabaco and Legazpi.

Col. Marlou Salazar, commanding officer of the Army's 901st Brigade said earlier that the task force Mayon had prepositioned 35 trucks in case an evacuation order is given by Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council (PDCC) chairman Joey Salceda, once the volcano's alert status is raised to level 3.

Quakes and high level of sulfur dioxide disgorged by Mt. Mayon were clear signs that the volcano continues to be on heightened state of restiveness, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said Wednesday.

Phivolcs bulletin on Wednesday said the volcano released 1,272 tons of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) for the past 24 hours monitoring period from Tuesday till Wednesday, which is way above the fluctuating range recorded during the past several days. The said rate of emission is record high during the last two-months observation period.

Gas emission trends from Mayon’s crater showed high unrest with 971 ton per day on the 12th of October, 853 tos per day on Oct. 11 2009, and 505 tons per day on Oct. 10, all are way above the baseline data of only 500 tons per day.

The agency seismic instruments detected only six high and low frequency volcanic earthquakes, bringing the total to 56 quakes recorded since last October 5.

Scientists said the volcano’s abnormality levels are indication of a possible eruptive state.

Phivolcs scientists are continuously observing Mayon volcano's fluctuating seismic precursors such as quakes, gas emission and ground deformation as these are indications that the volcano's seismic activity may possibly lead to an explosive eruption.

Phivolcs advisory said high and low frequency harmonic quakes were detected by seismic instruments, signifying that magma intrusion is developing in the volcano’s crater vent.

Ed Laguerta, Phivolcs resident volcanologist, said the agency seismic networks have recorded about over a hundred earthquakes rocking the volcano this October.

He said the agency is still assessing the abnormal state of the volcano based on given parameters like ground deformation, volcanic quakes and gas emission, and crater glow.

Precise Leveling results indicate the volcano edifice remains inflated at 6.0 mm swelling at the Buang lines while Lidong lines posted a 1.0-mm inflation.

The volcano did not exhibit crater glow due to cloudy sky prevailing in the volcano’s crater.

Alert level 2 remains hoisted over Mayon Volcano and Phivolcs strongly recommended that the 6-km Permanent Danger Zone including the 7-km extended danger zones be off limits to any human activity due to threat from sudden explosions and rockfalls from the upper slopes of the volcano.

Mayon Volcano, famous for its nearly perfect conical shape, has a height of over 2,400 meters.

The volcano, said to be the most active in the country, has erupted at least 50 times since 1616. Its worst eruption buried Cagsawa town and killed 1,200 people in 1814. An eruption in 1993 killed more than 70 farmers.

Mayon erupted again in 2006.



Camping tots stay put at jamboree site
By Rey M. Nasol

CAMALIG, Albay -- The Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council of Albay has declared a ‘code blue’ at a landslide-prone town and has recommended a stop to all camping activities at a jamboree site for very young school children in Manito town.

Governor Joey Salceda told this writer that he has already declared a ‘code blue’ which means people should stay put in their houses and the children were advised not to travel back home to Legazpi and their respective places of origins.

Salceda’s advisory early this morning said, “the organizers are hereby advised to limit activities on camp site and control the movement of pupils.”

Albay Public Safety and Emergency Management Office (APSEMO) director Cedric Daep also told the INQUIRER that he has recommended for a suspension of travel of the affected campers in Manito to avoid river channels and seaboards along the road going back to Legazpi.

Salceda said that the PDCC and the local disaster councils were already advised to execute measures to prevent untoward incident related to low pressure area that has pounded moderate to heavy rains.

“The Municipal Health Office (MHO) of Manito is placed under ‘code blue’ and together with the Provincial Health Office (PHO) are hereby instructed to provide teams on site with standby emergency vehicles,” Salceda said.

Salceda said that he had to see to it that Manito hospital must be in full support to PHO. “Unecessary movement outside camp site is hereby discouraged, DepEd is hereby instructed to put school buildings open as temporary safe shelters.”

Salceda, maintaining a zero casualty plan said the province is in close coordination with Manito MDCC for support and that Manito should be on alert status for the higher vulnerability.

This writer also tried to proceed to Legazpi but roads were impassable particularly in front of the municipal hall of Camalig with roaring sounds and rampaging chocolate-like flood together with boulders at knee deep.

The flood in Camalig has isolated the towns of the third district of Albay that prevented students, workers and travelers going to and from Legazpi City.

The APSEMO is also accounting for related flash flood incidents in Maipon, Guinobatan town and the perennially flooded portion of Barangay Padang in Legazpi City which also isolated the city of Tabaco and the rest of the first district of Albay.

Daep said that for the past 12 hours monitoring, the different rain gauges installed around the province have recorded an average of 7.2 milimeters with peak of 68 mm from 2 am until 9 am. “There were even higher recorded rains in other parts of the province and that the average is 7.2 on our readings but we still have to compare it with the official findings of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa),” Daep said.

Director Bernardo Alejandro of the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Bicol has also advised for an evacuation of the camping tots in Manito and added that military trucks were already fielded to assure the safety of the children from their camps to their temporary shelters.

A radio caller sought help of Director Alejandro to safely evacuate five families from Padang area who have fled to St. Calire monastery at the boundary of Sto. Domingo and Legazpi. Said residents are from areas near the spillway which was ravaged by ‘Reming’ in Nov. 30, 2006.

In response to the call, Alejandro assured a rescue team and vehicle to transfer the affected residents at the area to safer ground.

The provincial engineering office has immediately fielded heavy equipment to allow light vehicles to pass trough Camalig area. Motorcycles and small cars were able to traverse the flooded area at around 10:30 am. However rains continue to pound the province posing still undetermined damages to the perennially flooded areas.



Peasant group fears another aggravated rice crisis looming
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY -- The militant Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas-Bikol (KMP-Bikol) sounded alarm bells on the alleged looming aggravated rice crisis as agricultural damage caused by Tropical storms Ondoy and Pepeng, have already reached P18 billion.

According to Felix Paz, chairman of KMP-Bikol and concurrent national council member of KMP, “As with last year we are about to experience another round of the aggravated rice crisis but this time climate change has become a very major factor compounded by the fact that it is the government’s policy of massive land use conversion of agricultural lands and crop conversion that has caused this crisis in the first place. From 6 million hectares of Philippine rice lands, now it is just 4 million hectares and still decreasing,”

“The country’s average daily rice requirement is 35,000 metric tons (MT) and initially the Department of Agriculture (DA) said that they will just get from the unaffected provinces but as it is almost all the major rice producing provinces have been affected and now another low pressure area is battering Bicol, Visayas and Mindanao. The so-called buffer stock is good for 60 days but considering the extent of the damage and the need to feed the victims this will fall short of what is needed. This is the reason behind the DA’s move to again import more rice this early, but this is again just last year a band aid solution,” Paz said.

“It is like a slap on the Filipino people’s face that we as an agricultural country is the top rice importer in the world and yet that is our staple. To date we are again to import 250,000 MT of rice but this will also be coming from countries like Thailand, China and Vietnam which are also being ravaged by the same storms, of course when push comes to shove they will of course prioritize the food for their own people, leaving us with little or nothing at all,” the peasant leader said.

“As of now farmers have only harvested 5.7 million metric tons (MT) of rice in the fourth quarter of 2009 or almost 10 percent off the target of 6.4 million MT and with four to five more storms coming our way then we are in for tough times. What must be done now is to strictly enforce the price ceiling on basic goods especially rice and for the long term stop the massive land use conversion and crop conversion policies of the regime. Another aspect is for the government to have a comprehensive climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction plan to prevent one crisis from aggravating another,” Paz added.
Arroyo signs order for reconstruction commission
By Rey M. Nasol


LEGAZPI CITY -- The proposed reconstruction commission, a so-called "bypass route" that will quicken fund sourcing and hasten the country's coping mechanism against the effects of calamities, has been signed into an executive order by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, said Joey Salceda, economic adviser to Ms. Arroyo and current Albay Governor, on Tuesday.

Salceda proposed the creation of a special commission for Philippine reconstruction after Tropical Storm "Ondoy" and Typhoon "Pepeng" ravaged the central part of the country and the northern Luzon areas barely two weeks ago.

"Given the impact of the global crisis on our fiscal capacity versus the magnitude of calamity impact, the Philippines should seek fresh aid amounting to $1 billion to fund reconstruction," he said.

The special public-private reconstruction commission composed of representatives from the government, church, big business and civil society should be constituted by the government to spearhead the effort, he added.

Salceda explained that the special commission will operate like the original Coordinating Council for the Philippine Assistance Plan headed by businessman Roberto Villanueva of Atlantic Gulf Philippines Inc.

The CCPAP has since evolved into the Coordinating Council for Private Sector Participation which operates the BOT Center under DTI.

The Office of Civil Defense and the National Economic and Development Authority will form the secretariat, whose key task is to raise funds especially grants, prioritize programs and oversee implementation, is spelled out in the proposal.

Its members shall be appointed by the President but it will be headed by a dominant business leader with Social Welfare Secretary Esperanza Cabral and Cardinal Rosales as co-chairpersons and the secretaries of departments and heads of business groups and nongovernment organization as members.

The OCD and NEDA will form the secretariat and will also serve as a clearing house for international assistance implemented by the donors themselves using the cluster approach.

Breakdown of the P46 billion is as follows: relocation, P20 billion; infrastructure rehabilitation, P21 billion; and livelihood and agriculture, P5 billion.

The P46 billion will be allocated for typhoon victims, broken down as follows: P27 billion for Ondoy; P12 billion for Pepeng; and P7 billion for Typhoon "Frank" which hit Romblon and Visayan provinces in June 2008.

Ondoy's impact was on infrastructure while "Pepeng" devastated swaths of agricultural land.

Both calamities, however, surfaced a policy need for relocation for the affected population. In the case of Pepeng, it is the need to relocate those vulnerable to landslides while in Ondoy's case, there is the need to resettle informal settlers living beside riverbanks and lakeshores at risk to flooding.

The Reconstruction Commission should request the United Nations and the World Bank to coordinate an international pledging session either in Spain or Japan possibly in November.

Salceda said government is duty-bound to rebuild lives when big help is needed beyond the exigency of disaster response that usually comes in the form of two alternatives in the form of raising taxes and slashing other priorities.

The last two (taxes and slash) are "neither feasible nor desirable since they just shift pesos from the left to the right hand," he added.

He explained that what is needed are new external resources.

In its 5 a.m. update on Tuesday, the National Disaster Coordinating Council reported a P7.17-billion damage due to Pepeng.

This was broken down into: P1.14B-infrastructure; P6.02B-agriculture; and P.003 billion in private property.

It also said that Ondoy resulted to P3.68 billion damage to infrastructure and P6.76B to agriculture.



Sulfur dioxide, quakes show Mayon more restive
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY -- Sulfur dioxide emission and quakes showed clear signs that Mayon volcano continues to be on a heightened state of restiveness, said the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology on Monday.

A Phivolcs bulletin on Monday said the volcano released 853 tons of sulfur dioxide during the past 24 hours, a reading which was way above the 505 tons a day recorded on Sunday.

The sulfur dioxide disgorge from Mt. Mayon indicated a fluctuating trend ranging from 350 to 853 tons per day.

There were 505 tons per day recorded on Oct. 10; 761 tons on Oct.8; and 350 tons on Oct. 7.

Ed Laguerta, Phivolcs resident volcanologist, said that “350 tons per day to 853 tons per day during the past five days is an indication that magma is intruding into the volcano’s vent.”

The agency's seismic instruments detected 7 volcanic earthquakes which brought about a total of 43 quakes recorded during the past five days or a total of 106 earthquakes rocking the volcano since October 1.

High and low frequency harmonic quakes detected by the instruments signified that magma intrusion is developing in the volcano’s crater vent.

Laguerta said the agency is still assessing the abnormal state of the volcano based on other given parameters like ground deformation and crater glow.

In its latest bulletin, Phivolcs said the volcano did not exhibit crater glow due to cloudy sky prevailing in the volcano’s crater.

Alert level 2 remains hoisted over Mayon with Phivolcs strongly recommending that the 6-kilometer Permanent Danger Zone, including the 7-km extended danger zones in the southeast flank, be off limits to any human activity due to threats from sudden explosions and rockfalls from the volcano's upper slopes.

In August scientists kept watch for a feared collapse of a portion of Mayon’s crater, which holds an estimated 200,000 cubic feet of rocks.

Mayon Volcano, famous for its nearly perfect conical shape, has a height of over 2,400 meters.

The volcano, said to be the most active in the country, has erupted at least 50 times since 1616. Its worst eruption buried Cagsawa town and killed 1,200 people in 1814. An eruption in 1993 killed more than 70 farmers.

Mayon erupted again in 2006.






Mayon Volcano showed one of her beauty features that she seldom displays -- a saucer-like ring of cloud taken Sunday (Oct. 11, 2009) as it manifested more signs of unrests that prompt volcanologists to wait for good weather condition so as to conduct another aerial survey to determine if there is a need to finally raise alert status from level-2 to Alert Level 3. (Photos by Rey M. Nasol)






Landslides threaten 49 Bicol localities - mines bureau
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY -- Residents of 48 municipalities and a city in the Bicol region have been advised by the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) to move to safe ground during heavy rains, due to the high risk of landslides during the typhoon season.

MGB Bicol regional technical director Reynaldo A. Juan stressed the high probability of landslides in eight towns and a city in Albay, eight towns in Camarines Norte, 12 in Camarines Sur, eight in Catanduanes, five in Masbate and seven in Sorsogon.

Juan said the residents of the following municipalities should be prepared for evacuation to safe grounds in case of continuous rains in their areas:

* Bacacay, Libon, Malilipot, Malinao, Manito, Rapu-Rapu, Sto. Domingo and Tiwi towns and Ligao City in Albay; Basud, Capalonga, Labo, Mercedes, Paracale, San Lorenzo Ruiz, San Vicente, and Sta. Elena in Camarines Norte;

* The towns of Buhi, Caramoan, Garchitorena, Goa, Lagonoy, Libmanan, Lupi, Pasacao, Presentacion, Sagnay, Sipocot and Tinambac in Camarines Sur;

* Bagamanoc, Baras, Bato, Caramoran, Gigmoto, Pandan, Panganiban and San Andres in Catanduanes;

* Aroroy, Baleno, Mandaon, Milagros and Mobo in Masbate;

* Bulan, Irosin, Juban, Magallanes, Matnog and Sta. Magdalena towns and Sorsogon City in Sorsogon.

Juan said residents of other municipalities not listed as high risk to landslides but had histories of landslides, have also been encouraged to take precautionary measures and prepare to evacuate in case of signs of an impending landslide.



Albay stops GSIS loan payment deductions
By Rey M. Nasol


LEGAZPI CITY, Albay -- The provincial accountant of Albay has advised the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) that starting this October payroll, the province will not be deducting installment payments from provincial government employees who have outstanding loans.

Albay Gov. Joey Salceda said in a text message Sunday that he had instructed the provincial accounting office to make the move after President Macapagal-Arroyo approved his demand-side relief package to take effect immediately.

Salceda said his office had also advised companies in Albay not to deduct installment payments of employees with pending loans with the Social Security System.

“On the average, the monthly take-home pay should increase by P600 to P900,” he said.

In the recent Cabinet meeting, President Arroyo approved for implementation Salceda's proposal for an P86-billion relief package for victims of storm Ondoy and typhoon Pepeng.

Salceda argued that a one-year deferment of installment payments for salary and housing loans of Social Security System (SSS) and GSIS members affected by the two weather disturbances would result in higher take-home pay for 700,000 GSIS and 4.8 million SSS members.

“This would amount to P32 billion additional cash flow for ordinary households, P4 billion for GSIS and P28 billion for SSS,” he explained.

According to Salceda, “this effectively overrides original plans of the GSIS and SSS for incremental loans to members who need to apply while this plan would require less effort from members and less paper work for the two pension agencies.”

He said a similar package was approved for Albay in 2006 by the President to counter the adverse impact of Mayon eruption and typhoons Milenyo and Reming.

According to Salceda, the measures, combined with the Bicol Calamity Assistance for Rehabilitation Efforts, were instrumental in lifting the province to a stronger platform for recovery.

He added that demand-side interventions that involve providing direct cash benefits to citizens have been emerging as an important tool for disaster response to mitigate the social damage and overturn the potential economic drag of major calamities.



Super software guides Albay in handling calamities
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY – Planning and development officers in Albay are undergoing intensive five-day training on“computer-simulated scenario” software to help them cope against any type of calamity.

The Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment (Redas) system will assess the type of buildings essential in any type of calamity to maintain the province’s zero-casualty plan, Governor Joey Salceda said. It will “further empower the planning aspect of where and what kinds of buildings to construct in the province,” he said

Salceda said the move was significant to disaster-risk reduction.

Redas is a simple and user-friendly simulation tool or software that can give a rapid estimate of the possible seismic hazards to be used for inferring the severity of impacts to population, buildings, lifelines and other elements at risk, said Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs).

Developed by Phivolcs through a grant-in-aid from the Department of Science and Technology, Redas is one of the technologies featured in the “One-Stop Information Shop of Technologies” of the Philippines.

The inputs needed to produce the seismic hazard maps are location of earthquake epicenter, magnitude and fault data, said Solidum, who is here for part of the training program.

Albay is one of the more hazard-prone provinces in the country, being exposed to “volcanic (eruption), earthquakes, including tsunamis, as well so-called hydrometeorological hazards, such as landslides and floods,” he said

“Various hazard maps such as pyroclastic flow, lava flow, lahar, ashfall and tsunami were built in the Redas database,” said Redas coordinator Maria Leonila Bautista and Bartolome Bautista, associate scientist of Phivolcs.

The Redas started with Version 1.0 and was updated to 1.7. In Version 2.0, it already includes hazards, such as landslides and floods prepared by the Mines and Geosciences Bureau, Bautista said.

“As we continue to upgrade the software, the future plan which we are working on now are the equations and calculations for possible casualties and injuries and damages to properties with or without disaster preparedness or response mechanisms,” she explained.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Albay planners on 5-day REDAS training vs. tsunamis, etc
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY – The local planning and development officers in Albay are undergoing rigid training on preparedness and disaster mitigation efforts with the use of a computer simulated scenarios software called the Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment (REDAS) system.

This will further empower the planning aspect of where and what kinds of buildings to construct in the provice of Albay in order to fully prepare the people and maintain the zero casualty plan of Gov. Joey Salceda from any types of calamity.

“This is actually climate change-proofing and a very important element to the disaster risk reduction and mitigation of impacts of calamities to maintain our zero casualty efforts,” Governor Joey Salceda said.

“We are having training to save lives and minimize injuries as well as loss of properties before, during and after earthquakes and other calamities in Albay,” Director Manuel Rangasa of the Center for Research on Climate Change Adaptation (CIRCA) told the DATELINER Tuesday.

This is a follow-up training after new and updated versions of the software have been created to make the software more user-friendly and complete.

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) Director Renato U. Solidum, who is here for two days, said the REDAS software is one of the technologies featured in the “One-Stop Information Shop of Technologies (OSIST)” of the Philippines.

“Albay is one of the more hazard-prone provinces in the country, being exposed to volcanic, earthquake including tsunami as well as hydrometeorological hazards such as landslides and floods,” Solidum who stayed from Monday till tuesday told the participants.

Historically, the province has been affected by the 1814 Mayon Volcano eruption, the 1840 earthquake and lately, the 2006 Typhoon Reming floods and landslides.

The training was supported by PHIVOLCS, the Provincial Government of Albay and the Center for Initiatives and Research on Climate Adaptation (CIRCA).

A total of 70 participants from the cities of Legaspi, Ligao and Tabaco, the municipalities of Polangui, Libon, Oas, Guinobatan, Camalig, Daraga, Manito, Sto. Domingo, Bacacay, Malilipot, Malinao, Jovellar, Pioduran Rapu-Rapu and Tiwi

The other participants were CIRCA, Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) staffs, the Albay Public Safety and Emergency Management Office (APSEMO), the resident volcanologist and staff of the LiƱgon Hill Observatory, the Office of Civil Defense ad the Provincial Planning and Development Office (PPDO)

“ Although the REDAS software was designed for rapid seismic hazard evaluation after the occurrence of a potentially-damaging earthquake, various hazard maps such as pyroclastic flow, lava flow, lahars, ashfall and tsunami were built in in the REDAS database,” Maria Leonila P. Bautista, Bartolome C. Bautista, REDAS coordinator and DOST- Phivolcs Associate Scientist told the DATELINER Tuesday.

“The REDAS started with version 1.0 and then updated to 1.7 and now that we have the version 2.0, it already includes the hydrometeorological hazards prepared by the MGB into the software. As we continue to upgrade the software, the future plan, which we are working on now are the equations and calculations for possible casualties and injuries and damages to properties with or without disaster preparedness or response mechanisms,” Bautista explained.


The software

According to Solidum, REDAS is a simple and user-friendly simulation tool or software that can give rapid estimate of the possible seismic hazards which can be used for inferring the severity of impacts to population, buildings, lifelines and other elements at risk.

The inputs needed to produce the hazard maps are location of earthquake epicenter, magnitude and fault data.

The software was developed by PHIVOLCS through a Grant-in-Aide (GIA) from the Department of Science and Technology (DOST).

“The development of the software stemmed from two objectives that PHIVOLCS would like to achieve. The first objective is to provide quick simulated hazard information to disaster managers which will help them in assessing the distribution and extent of impact of a strong earthquake so as to guide them in deciding and prioritizing timely rescue and relief operations. This is very important specially when communication lines are cut off and access roads are blocked and information about the affected areas could not be immediately known.” Bautista said.

The second objective, according to Bautista, is for the software to serve as tool in convincing land use planners, policy makers, city and town development planners and local government executives to consider hazards in their planning and development efforts so as to ensure long term mitigation of seismic risks.

Phivolcs believe that if this sector is given a hand in producing their own hazard maps through the use of this software, they will have a deeper understanding and appreciation of the seismic hazards their constituencies are exposed to and they will be more motivated to do serious planning and intensive formulation of effective disaster prevention policies such as serious land use regulation, strict implementation of the building code and issuance of timely ordinance for the evaluation and retrofitting of critical structures.

The hazards that could be computed using this tool are ground shaking, landslides, liquefaction and tsunami. The risk database that are continuously being built by PHIVOLCS in REDAS include population centers, roads and communication networks, lifelines, high rise buildings, hospitals, schools, fire stations, power plants, dams and other critical facilities, said Bautista. (RMN)



P86-Billion relief package a greenlight for flood victims
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY – The proposed P86 Billion relief package has been given the green light for implementation to offset sufferings among the struggling victims of typhoons ‘Ondoy’ and ‘Pepeng,’ President Gloria Arroyo’s top economic adviser said Monday.

Albay gov. Joey Salceda said that during the Cabinet meeting at the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), Arroyo ordered concerned agencies to implement a comprehensive package of relief measures for families impacted by Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng with a 4-point demand-side liquidity strategy that he earlier proposed.

“A global one-year installment deferral of salary and housing loans of members of SSS and GSIS would result in higher take-home pay for 700,000 GSIS and 4.8 million SSS members,” Salceda said.

This would amount to P32billion additional cashflow for ordinary households, P4 billion for GSIS and P28 billion for SSS.

According to Salceda, this, effectively overrides original plans of GSIS and SSS for incremental loans for members who need to apply while this plan would require less effort from members and less paperwork for the two pension agencies.

The second major item of the plan is a P35 billion for small businesses through 5-year special rediscounting window at 91-day Tbill + 2 percent that would enable banks to restructure their exposure to affected enterprises given the disruption in their recurring incomes and permanent damage to their earning asset base.

The third component is a P15 billion home improvement loan program by Pag-ibig for its eligble members at P150,000 payable in 10 years on top of their outstanding loans.

The fourth item is the provision by Philhealth of 3 months of the average monthly reimbursements to its accredited outlets which would reach P4 billion.

Salceda presented the proposal to Pres. Arroyo during her visit to Polangui (Salceda's hometown) for the inauguration of a local water system.

He argued that a similar package was approved for Albay in 2006 by PGMA to counter the adverse impact of Mayon Eruption, Typhoon Milenyo and Reming.

According to Salceda, the demand-side measures (as opposed to supply-side interventions like relief goods) combined with the Bicol Calamity Assistance for Rehabilitation Efforts (BCARE) rehabilitation were instrumental in lifting the province to a stronger platform for recovery.

"Once supply chains have been restored and survival needs provided, cash is the best form of social and economic relief after a catastrophic event since victims know better their needs, beneficiaries would be more judicious in their procurement and the benefit is direct and immediate," Salceda said.

He added that demand side interventions are fast emerging as a critical item of a menu of tools for disaster response to mitigate the widespread social damage and overturn the potential economic drag of major calamities like Typhoon Ondoy (Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma).



Never trust Mayon's lull – Phivolcs
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY – The volcanic quakes, sustained inflation of the edifice, gas emission and crater glows are very important signs of a coming eruption of Mayon Volcano and people at its foot should never trust its lull sometimes, this was the warning from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) director Renato Solidum said Monday.

The Phivolcs had already installed two units of digital tilt meters along Mayon Volcano, particularly at Barangay Anoling in Camalig and at the Mayon Resthouse in Tabaco City, all within the 6-kilometer Permanent Danger Zone, according to Solidum.

“As much as the scientists are keeping eyes and ears on Mayon, no one should trust it on a daily basis of its manifestation but instead be very careful because the sustained threats is still there although we also refer to its 2006 eruption event (a protracted one),” Solidum said.

He explained that if Magma is fast moving upwards towards the crater, it would explode violently like what happened in 1814, when the old Cagsawa town was buried in mud rendering the area in whole ruin and another 1897 eruption recorded with several thousands killed.

“Now, the rise and fall in the gas and earthquakes rate indicated that Mayon is degassing and has time to relese pressure and would wait for another fresh batch of magma push upwards that is why there are changes in rates of the monitored parameters,” Solidum explained.

Solidum, however, warned that “we can’t say when or what kind of eruption (violent or not) but disaster authorities must maintain the warning against venturing at the 6-kilometer permanent danger zones and the 7-km extended danger zones especially at the southeast quadrant facing Daraga, Santo Domingo twons and this city. “There is a need for a strong collaboration among local disaster councils to maintain the safety of the people and consistently attain a zero casualty rate even in the event of its eruption.”

Mayon’s trend of volcanic quakes shows a descending order for the past few days: Five volcanic earthquakes were detected by the seismic network on Sunday, 23 volcanic earthquakes were detected by the seismic network on Saturday, but 35 volcanic earthquakes were detected by the seismic network on Friday.

As earlier warned by resident volcanologist Eduardo Laguerta, the continuous, presence of ‘tremors’ might already indicate a coming eruption.

In fact, Friday’s bulletin (October 2) revealed that Recording of harmonic tremors were continuously observed from 8:36 am Thursday, Oct. 1) until Friday. “However, it was not consistently observed during the following observation period,” Laguerta said.

Laguerta said that once Mayon showed ‘tremors’ it already indicates a coming eruption “If the tremor episodes will become frequent, and of higher magnitude then, eruption is possible within several days period,” Laguerta said, explaining that the tremors should be of low frequency types indicating continuous magmatic ascent. (RMN)

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Salceda reiterates need for Pagasa modernization
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY -- Albay Gov. Joey Salceda reiterated his call for the modernization of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) and the institutionalization of disaster management operations in the whole country to prevent onslaughts of catastrophes during typhoons.

Salceda said that as Super Typhoon Pepeng (PARMA) lingers on Bicol provinces and nearby areas with sustained winds of 195 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 230 kph, the apparent lack of warning instruments of the government weather agency and an institutionalized disaster management program of local disaster councils would be the major cause of deaths and destruction of infrastructure wrought by storms every time it hits the country.

In his analysis on how disaster authorities cope with Tropical storm 'Ondoy' (International name Ketsana), Salceda, said the crux of over 200 deaths and people in various parts of Metro Manila and neighboring regions is failure in warning.

The pagasa has no Doppler radar to forecast short-run rainfall content of incoming typhoons or other weather disturbances.

Salceda exposed earlier that the agency is using manual rain gauges that capture data too late and the access of disaster authorities to the system is not direct and not on real time, the governor pointed out.

As a top administration economic adviser, Salceda, is also a climate change advocate and is known worldwide for his “pre-emptive” evacuation procedures in times of calamities.

He deplored that with the currect setup, typhoon warnings are limited only to wind – no flood warning or landslide warning system to activate evacuation.

Salceda said “with no, little or late warning and no institutionalized disaster management system, the National Capital Region (NCR) and other regions were caught flat-footed at the sudden on-set of the flood.”

“They failed to issue advisories on what to do, no evacuation order was issued prior to the flood event, and these advisories must be scientifically done,” he said.

For this reasons, Salceda recommended that the weather agency should expedite acquisition of Doppler radars, develop a flood warning system to activate evacuation procedures by disaster authorities.

He also urged local disaster councils to institutionalize disaster preparedness at the local governments level.

He also highly recommended the implementation of a pre-emptive evacuation procedures to prevent further the loss of lives. “Rescue is not needed if people are already evacuated,” he pointed out.

Dam water discharge warning should also be integrated into Pagasa warning and forecast.

He also urged representatives of the Lower House to immediately pass its version of the proposed Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) bill to institutionalize DRR in the regional, provincial and local levels. The Senate version has already been approved, Salceda said.

The Philippines should start to adapt measures to the escalating impacts of climate change as manifested by recent extreme weather events, he said.

Albay was able to attain zero-casualty because of the above strategies and therefore the rest of the country and the world, for that matter, can. (RMN)


Quake surges rock Mayon anew
By Rey M. Nasol

LEGAZPI CITY – Mayon Volcano’s restive activity caught new attention even as disaster authorities are busy manning residents for their safety against super typhoon ‘Pepeng’.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) had reported Friday morning that at least 35 volcanic earthquakes jolted Mayon Volcano on Thursday, the highest recorded seismic event since July when the volcano showed intense signs of restiveness.

The surge started as the month of October entered with 14 volcanic quakes on Wednesday observation up to Thursday this week while only one was recorded on Tuesday.

Dr. Eduardo Laguerta, Phivolcs resident volcanologist said the agency seismic networks has recorded a total of 82 earthquakes that rocked the volcano since Sept. 27.

Scientists monitoring the volcano still do not discount the possibility of explosive eruption because of the fluctuating seismic precursors such as quakes, ground swelling and gas emissions that indicate the dangers.

Phivolcs Friday’s advisory said high and low frequency harmonic quakes were detected by seismic instruments signifying that magma intrusion is developing in the volcano’s crater vent

Sulfur Dioxide disgorge from Mt Mayon indicated a fluctuating trend ranging from 392 tons per day to 445 tons per day for the past three days. No reading was recorded yesterday because of bad weather.

Laguerta said the fluctuating rates of gas emission is indicative that magma is building up to the crater in preparation for an imminent eruption.

Laguerta said the agency is still assessing the abnormal state of the volcano based on given parameters like ground deformation, volcanic quakes and gas emission, and crater glow.

Precise Leveling result indicate a 6.0 mm swelling on the volcano edifice was noted bulging at the Buang while Lidong lines posted a 1.0 mm inflation.

The volcano’s crater glow was obscured by the prevailing bad weather in Albay

Alert level 2 remains hoisted over Mayon volcano, Phivolcs strongly recommend that the 6-km Permanent Danger Zone including the 7-km extended danger zones should be off limits to any human activity due to threat from sudden explosions and rockfalls from the upper slopes of the volcano.

Lahar flows were also warned against the residents living along river channels, gullies and the low lying areas. (RMN)